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ONLYTHEFACTS
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Labor Market Predictions for 2019 Onward (Age-related)
The prime-age (25-54) labor force participation is at roughly the same level it was a decade ago in 2008.At the same time, the labor...
Five Predictions for the rest of the rest of 2018
With the DOW in its 6th straight gain today and back in black for 2018, the stock market may be back on its 2017 trajectory to over...
A Federal Debt Brake: The Swiss Solution to Averting Fiscal Crisis
After passing tax cuts without cutting spending to offset short-term losses in revenue, a gigantic omnibus spending package priced at...
Is the Yield Curve signalling a looming recession?
The 2-year/10-year spread is the difference between long-term and short-term bonds. When long-term yields fall below short-term yields,...
Public Debt Estimates Before the Release of the CBO Annual Outlook Report
Two weeks before the CBO releases its annual Budget and Economic Outlook for the period 2018 – 2028, we are anticipating large upward...
Economists are too optimistic about 2018 Growth
After this week’s upbeat Federal Reserve Minutes Report, you would think that the economy was going from strength to strength, completely...
The truth about trade wars
As the Dow plunges for the fourth day in a row and talk of trade tariffs rattles markets, the President continues to dig into his...
How likely is a recession in the near term?
In May of this year, our current period of economic expansion will be the second longest expansion since 1945. At 104 consecutive months...
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