The prime-age (25-54) labor force participation is at roughly the same level it was a decade ago in 2008.At the same time, the labor force aged 55 and older has grown by more than 50 percent over this same decade.
In 2018 alone, labor force growth for those aged 55 and older grew 4 percent. However, this trend of growth is likely to stabilize in 2019 as the large cohort of people aged 45-54 is shrinking. At the same time, the participation of those aged 25-34—the consumption-intensive cohorts, could act as a stimulus in the 2020’s.
Two largest five-year cohorts by year:
2010: 45-49, 50-54 (54-63 in 2019) - millions joined the 55+ cohort from 2010-2019
2020: 25-29, 30-34 – millions will join the 35-44 cohort from 2020-2029
Every 10-year age cohort sees 23 to 24 years of growth in labor force participation, followed by 14 to 17 years of decline. The labor force aged 25-34 grew from 1966 to 1989, then from 1990 to 2004 this cohort group declined. The age 35-44 labor force grew from 1974 to 1997, then declined from 1997 to 2014. The age 45-54 labor force grew from 1985 to 2009, then began a decline, which is ongoing. The labor force aged 55+ began growing around 1996; on current trends this growth is due to stall in 2019 and begin to decline from there until around 2034.